Saturday, February 16, 2008

Money Supply Explodes

At this stage of the business cycle, money growth is a confirmation of the growth in economic activity, and MZM is surging. There's no recession in sight.

MZM Surges to 15%



Behind this growth is an exploding loan portfolio at Commercial Banks.

Commercial and Industrial Loans



Real estate loans continue to fall.

Real Estate Loans



CONCLUSION
Economic activity will continue strong for the next 18 months.

Risk comes from a resurgence of inflation. Lengthen liability maturities.

Risk also comes from a deteriorating dollar. Hedge against this risk and emphasize foreign profit centers.

Credit will continue to improve as the Fed lowers short-term rates. Take advantage of Money Market arbitrage.